Economic integration and export complexity: the case of Slovakia

The goal of the article is to evaluate the impact of the European Union (EU) accession on the complexity of goods in Slovak exports. The traditional theories or trade (Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin models) show that such an engagement in economic integration may lead to specialization in the production of either more or less sophisticated goods, depending on the country’s technological advancement and factor endowment. At the same time, increased FDI flows may stimulate the engagement of a country in international production chains with ambiguous effects on export complexity. Because it is impossible to a priori predict the effect economic integration may have on the complexity, it is reasonable to verify it empirically. The authors used the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to compare the observed post-accession levels of exports complexity in Slovakia with the counterfactual values of that country remaining outside of the EU. The obtained results show that the accession led to an increase in complexity of exported goods

Does the euro increase the complexity of exported goods? The case of Estonia

The goal of this article is to assess the impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Estonian exports. Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin models of trade would predict that such a policy decision (seen as an example of trade liberalization) may result in specialization in the production of either more or less sophisticated goods – the effect depends on country’s technological advancement and factor endowment. At the same time intensified FDI flows may enhance engagement of a country in international production chains with ambiguous consequences for exports complexity. Since it is impossible to a priori predict the effect monetary integration may have on the complexity, it is reasonable to conduct an empirical (and a posteriori) analysis. The authors applied the Synthetic Control Method to compare the observedpost-adoption levels of exports complexity in Estonia with the counterfactual values with Estoniaremaining outside of the Eurozone. The obtained results show that the adoption of the euro has resulted inthe increase in complexity of exported goods (compared to counterfactual scenario).This work was supported by the National Science Centre of Poland (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) under Grant 2014/13/N/HS4/02977

The links between firm-level productivity and modes of international expansion of firms from the Lodz Voivodeship

The paper investigates the link between firm-level productivity and internationalisation (through exports, imports and foreign direct investment (F.D.I.)) in the Lodz Voivodeship, Poland. The Olley–Pakes algorithm was used to estimate firm-level productivity. Two hypotheses were then tested – self-selection hypothesis (stating that internationalisation is only possible at sufficiently high productivity levels) and learning hypothesis (claiming that engaging in international activity facilitates productivity growth). It has been found that productivity may affect firms’ decisions about engaging in import and F.D.I., while there is no evidence of such an effect regarding exports. At the same time, there is no proof for learning, suggesting that within the timeframe of the analysis firms from the Lodz Voivodeship did not experience productivity gains due to international trade or investment

Firm-level productivity and international expansion of firms from the Lodz Voivodeship

The paper investigates the link between firm-level productivity and internationalization (through exports, imports and FDI) in the Lodz Voivodeship, Poland. Two hypotheses have been tested –self-selection and learning by internationalization. It has been found that productivity may affect import and FDI decisions of firms, while there is no evidence of such an effect regarding exports. At the same time, there is no proof for learning, suggesting that within the timeframe of the analysis firms from the Lodz Voivodeship do not experience productivity gains due to international trade or investment

Firm-size distribution in Poland – is power law applicable?

The article focuses on power laws and their growing popularity in science in general and in economics specifically. The theoretical mechanisms responsible for their generating are reviewed. We also empirically test whether firm-size distribution of companies in Poland has the characteristics of the Zipf’s law – a special case of a power law. This is confirmed based on an investigation within the sample of 2000 largest companies and a set of alternative estimators of the power law exponent

Complexity of national export bundles: an outline

Współczesne, światowe badania nad teorią handlu międzynarodowego skupiają się na wzbogaceniu rozważań o kolejne aspekty: jakościowe, strukturalne czy instytucjonalne. Jednym z coraz częściej poruszanych tematów jest zagadnienie złożoności koszyków eksportowych państw, jej uwarunkowań i wpływu na pozostałe sfery gospodarki. Tej, wciąż niepopularnej na polskim gruncie, problematyce poświęcono niniejszy artykuł. Część pierwsza tekstu stanowi wprowadzenie do rozważań. W części drugiej na podstawie przeglądu literatury opisano znaczenie złożoności eksportu dla gospodarki narodowej, zwłaszcza dla wzrostu gospodarczego i zmian strukturalnych. W trzeciej części zaprezentowano determinanty złożoności, a w czwartej przedstawiono współczesne trendy rozkładu złożoności między krajami i grupami produktowymi. Ostatnia część to podsumowanie pracy.Contemporary research into the theory of international trade focuses on introducing new qualitative, structural and institutional aspects. One of the topics that seems to be gaining popularity is the issue of the complexity of bundles of exported goods, its determinants, and the effects it has on other elements of national economies. This paper is devoted to the problem because it is still unexplored by the Polish literature. The first section serves as an introduction. The second one contains a survey of literature on the significance of complexity for the economy, especially economic growth and structural transformations. The third section presents the determinants of complexity. The fourth one presents modern trends of complexity distribution among countries and groups of goods. The final section provides a conclusion to the discussion.Tekst powstał w ramach projektu pt.: Wpływ członkostwa w strefie euro na złożoność produktów w eksporcie, realizowanego na Uniwersytecie Łódzkim przy współpracy z Narodowym Centrum Nauki w Krakowie (numer projektu 2014/13/N/HS4/02977).Piotr Gabrielczak: [email protected] Serwach: [email protected] Piotr Gabrielczak - Wydział Ekonomiczno-Socjologiczny, Uniwersytet Łódzkimgr Tomasz Serwach - Wydział Ekonomiczno-Socjologiczny, Uniwersytet ŁódzkiAnand R., Mishra S., Spatafora N., 2012, Structural Transformation and the Sophistication of Production, IMF Working Paper, no. 12/59, Washington, DC.Atlas of Economic Complexity, http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu (data wejścia: 03.10.2015).Costinot A., 2009, On the origins of comparative advantage, “Journal of International Economics”, vol. 77.Costinot A., Oldensky L., Rauch J.E., 2009, Adaptation and the Boundary of Multinational Firms, NBER Working Paper, no. 14668, Cambridge, MA.Cuddington J.T., Jayasuriya S.A., Ludema R., 2002, Prebisch-Singer Redux, U.S. International Trade Commission, Office of Economics Working Paper, no. 2002-06-A, Washington, DC.Frankel J. A., Romer D., 1999, Does Trade Cause Growth?, “American Economic Review”, vol. 89, no. 3.Gertler P., 2006, Export Structure Quality and Economic Growth, “National Economy Issues”, National Bank of Slovakia, BIATEC, vol. XIV, no. 10.Goldstein M., Lardy N., 2005, China’s role in the revised Bretton Woods system: A case of mistaken identity, Institute for International Economics, Working Paper No. 05-2, Waszyngton, DC.Hausmann R., Hwang J., Rodrik D., 2007, What you export matters, “Journal of Economic Growth”, 12(1).Hausmann R., Klinger B., 2007, The Structure of the Product Space and the Evolution of Comparative Advantage, CID Working Paper, no. 146, Center for International Development at Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.Hidalgo C.A., Hausmann R., 2009, The building blocks of economic complexity, “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences”, 106(26).Hidalgo C.A., Hausmann R., 2011, The network structure of economic output, “Journal of Economic Growth”, 16 (4).Koren M., Tenreyro S., 2013, Technological Diversification, “The American Economic Review”, 103(1).Lall S., 2000, The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-1998, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford, Oxford.Lederman D., Maloney W.F., 2012, Does What You Export Matter? In Search of Empirical Guidance for Industrial Policies, World Bank, Washington, DC.Observatory of Economic Complexity, http://atlas.media.mit.edu (data wejścia: 03.10.2015).Rodriguez F., Rodrik D., 2001, Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to Cross-National Evidence, [in:] NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, B.S. Bernanke, K. Rogoff (eds.), MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.Sachs. J, Warner A., 1995, Economic reform and the process of global integration, “Brookings Papers on Economic Activity”, no. 1.Young A., 1991, Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade, “Quarterly Journal of Economics”, vol. 106, no. 2.129-1432(80)12914

Countries’ Position in the International Trade Network According to Self-Sufficiency of Their Export Production And the Width of Their Trade Contacts

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: The first objective of this paper is to evaluate countries’ position in the international trade network with regard to their two dimensions: their self-sufficiency and extent of their trade contacts. The second objective is to test the implications of the utilized criteria for the European Union member states. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: It was decided to classify countries using the data on foreign value added in trade and network characteristics (mainly – vertex centrality). Different categories of countries were identified and labelled according to that criteria. Later, correlation analysis was used to determine if the utilised criteria had any effect on countries’ welfare and shock resistance. THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: In our opinion, countries that play an important role in international trade network should be important partners for numerous other countries. However, that criterion is not enough, as many less developed countries serve simply as assembly lines for value created elsewhere. Therefore we focused also on the share of imported value added to the total value of exported goods. We then tested if our notions translate to national welfare and export’s resistance to external shocks, such as the Great Trade Collapse of 2008/2009. RESEARCH RESULTS: The classification concept was applied to a sample of EU member states displaying differences between Old and New member states. The analysis proved differences in welfare and stability of export performance during the Great Trade Collapse among countries with different levels of export and import contacts and intensity of relying on imported inputs for their own export production. CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: It is vital to diversify export and import contacts due to possible impact of those characteristics on welfare level and stability of trade flows. At the same time, the effects of engagement in international production networks creates a tradeoff: higher dependence on foreign inputs may stabilize trade dynamics at the expense of lowering GDP level

Rozkład wielkości firm w Polsce - czy ma zastosowanie prawo potęgowe?

This article focuses on the existence of power laws in the firm-size distribution in Poland. Specifically, we empirically test whether the size distribution of companies in Poland has the characteristics of Zipf ’s law, a special case of power law observed in many different contexts in empirical economic literature. Our analysis uses 2019 data on the 2,000 largest companies in Poland as ranked by the Rzeczpospolita daily newspaper in its “Lista 2000” (Top 2,000 List). We reviewed theoretical mechanisms generating power laws and used several estimators of the power-law exponent in our empirical analysis. Our results confirm statistically significant deviations from Zipf ’s law in the firm-size distribution in Poland. We found evidence that the power law cannot satisfactorily approximate the sales-based distribution of firms.Artykuł koncentruje się na istnieniu praw potęgowych w rozkładzie wielkości firm w Polsce. Przetestowano empirycznie, czy rozkład wielkości firm w Polsce ma cechy prawa Zipfa – szczególnego przypadku prawa potęgowego obserwowanego w wielu różnych kontekstach w literaturze ekonomicznej. W analizie wykorzystano dane z roku 2019, dotyczące 2000 największych przedsiębiorstw w Polsce, notowanych na Liście 2000 „Rzeczpospolitej”. Dokonano przeglądu teoretycznych mechanizmów generujących prawa potęgowe, a w analizie empirycznej zastosowano kilka estymatorów wykładnika potęgi. Uzyskane przez nas wyniki potwierdzają istotne statystycznie odchylenia od prawa Zipfa w przypadku rozkładu wielkości firm w Polsce. Znaleźliśmy dowody na to, że prawo potęgowe nie jest w stanie w zadowalający sposób aproksymować rozkładu firm opartego na sprzedaży

Verification of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in the years 2000–2011. Analysis of internal factors affecting country’s terms-of-trade

Artykuł dotyczy hipotezy Prebischa–Singera (PS). W pierwszej części przedstawiono hipotezę PS oraz jej teoretyczne wyjaśnienia i przegląd badań weryfikujących jej prawdziwość. W dalszej części opisano trendy zmian TOT w latach 2000–2011 w krajach rozwiniętych, rozwijających się oraz transformacji gospodarczej. Przedstawiono także wyniki badania ekonometrycznego, w którym podjęto próbę przetestowania prawdziwości hipotezy PS oraz działania na TOT wybranych czynników wewnętrznych. Otrzymane wyniki nie potwierdziły prawdziwości hipotezy PS, za to podtrzymały przypuszczenia dotyczące pozostałych czynników.The paper refers to the Prebisch–Singer (PS) hypothesis. The first section presents the hypothesis itself along with its theoretical explanations and a review of research on its legitimacy. The next section describes trends in TOT in years 2000–2011 for developed, developing and transition economies. At the end authors included results of econometrical research, testing for the PS hypothesis and other internal factors affecting TOT. The results did not confirm the PS hypothesis, but they supported assumptions referring to other factors.Udostępnienie publikacji Wydawnictwa Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego finansowane w ramach projektu „Doskonałość naukowa kluczem do doskonałości kształcenia”. Projekt realizowany jest ze środków Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Wiedza Edukacja Rozwój; nr umowy: POWER.03.05.00-00-Z092/17-00